THE PRE-SOMETHING ERA – AMERICA’S LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE: Lecture By Lt. General (ret.) James Dubik

UNCLASSIFIED

CLEARED: IO READERS

DRAFTED: DMCDONALD

DATE: 11-17-2017

FROM: ASIA-PACIFIC SECTION CHIEF

TO: IO

SUBJECT: THE PRE-SOMETHING ERA – AMERICA’S LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE

  1. LIEUTENANT GENERAL JAMES DUBIK ASSERTS THAT HISTORY IS DIVDED INTO DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGICAL ERAS, ALL WHICH INFLUENCE GLOBAL EVENTS.  DESPITE BEING IN THE INFORMATION AGE, HE BELIEVES A NEW ERA, CALLED THE PRE-SOMETHING ERA IS ABOUT TO BEGIN.  THIS AGE WILL BE DEFINED BY HOW THE U.S. INTERACTS WITH THE REVISIONIST, REVOLUTIONARY, AND ROGUE POWERS.

 

  1. LIEUTENANT GENERAL DUBIK’S FIRST POINT IS THAT EACH ERA IN HISTORY REVOLVES AROUND A CATALYST THAT AFFECTS GLOBAL POLITICS. THE AGRARIAN AGE, WAS BASED OFF MAN POWER.  THE INDUSTRIAL AGE WAS BASED OFF ANALOG TECHNOLOGIES.  THE INFORMATION AGE IS BASED OFF THE CREATION OF THE INTERNET AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY.

 

  1. DUBIK ARGUES WE ARE NO LONGER IN A “POST-SOMETHING” ERA, BUT RATHER A “PRE-SOMETHING” ERA. THIS ERA WILL BE DEFINED BY THE ACTIONS OF THREE TYPES OF ACTORS, REVISIONIST, REVOLUTIONARY, AND ROGUE POWERS, DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY.  REVISIONIST POWERS ARE COUNTRIES WHO SEEK TO IMPROVE THEIR GLOBAL INFLUENCE – I.E. CHINA.  REVOLUTIONARY POWERS ARE ACTORS WHO HAVE CHOSEN TO OVERTHROW GOVERNMENTS VIA VIOLENT METHODS – I.E. ISIS.  ROGUE POWERS ARE THOSE FOCUSED ON SELF-INTEREST AND SURVIVAL – I.E. NORTH KOREA.

 

  1. IF THE U.S. WANTS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO, IT NEEDS TO HANDLE EACH POWER IN A DIFFERENT WAY. WITH REVISIONIST POWERS, THE U.S. SHOULD ATTEMPT TO COMPETE, BUT REMAIN FRIENDLY.  WITH REVOLUTIONARY POWERS, THE U.S. SHOULD ATTEMPT TO COMBAT THEM USING TRANSNATIONAL MEANS AND TO REMOVE THE SYSTEMS THAT ALLOW THEM TO RECONSTITUTE THEMSELVES.  WITH ROGUE POWERS, THE U.S. SHOULD SEEK TO GET THEIR REVISIONIST ALLIES INVOLVED AND PREVENT NORTH KOREA FROM DESTABILIZING THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.

 

MCDONALD

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