Germany Organizing For IS Attempt; Challenges Ahead

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Germany Organizing For IS Attempt; Challenges Ahead

HRT Correspondent – Adam Craddock

14 August 2016

Executive Summary:

It is highly likely Germany is organizing for a large scale organized terrorist attack perpetrated by Islamic State, yet struggles remain in monitoring refugees who entered the country. Also, Germany is still finding ways of reassuring the public of their safety. German counterterrorism units hold records of effective results while mitigating casualties, according to public record. The precedent set by previous attacks in France and Belgium provide indicators of possible targets and methods of attacking in the future. Legislators unite to pass policies towards deportation of foreign criminals and revocation of the German citizenship of dual-citizen terrorist sympathizers.

Discussion:Munich-Map

The Islamic State attacks at the Brussels airport in Belgium and attacks in Paris, France demonstrated effective networking and planning on the part of an international terrorist organization. Yet, the response, during the event and the aftermath included swift action on the part of French and Belgian authorities and the international community.[i] Other European countries secured their borders and aided France and Belgium in rooting out the culpable network.[ii] German intelligence agencies can utilize the copious testimonies of police and victims involved, targets, and methods utilized by Islamic State in order to forecast possible scenarios, indicators and targets within Germany.[iii]

Germany’s premier counterterrorism and special operations police group, GSG-9, holds over 1500 completed missions and five occasions with weapons discharged on the public record.[iv] In 1977, the first and most prominent mission, Feuerzauber, found GSG-9 in Mogadishu, Somalia, where they stormed a high jacked plane, neutralized four hijackers and rescued all 86 hostages.[v] GSG-9 proved with its operations they can effectively deal with high stress, high-risk terrorist situations.

Finally, Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere announced new security policy proposals on August 11, 2016, concerning the accelerated deportment of criminal foreigners, screening of Syrian refugees and the abolishment of German citizenship of dual citizens fighting for Islamic militant groups. The proposals also grant police and security forces greater manpower, funds and equipment for safeguarding the public. The threat of a large-scale terror attack will dominate German politics through the next election cycle.[vi]

German intelligence and police struggle to keep track of refugees currently residing in Germany, in order to detect potential Islamic State sympathizers and criminals. Reports of Islamic State cells among the refugees become increasingly apparent, according to a Bavarian Intelligence agency.[vii]

Analytic Confidence:

Analytic confidence for this product is medium. Sources corroborated the information and show medium to high reliance. This product is peer reviewed. The product was completed with limited time constraints. The subject matter is difficult due to many intelligence gaps such as lack of access to classified information and the specifics of refugee records in Germany. The author has spent time in Germany.

[i] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34832512 (High)

[ii] http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/23/europe/brussels-belgium-attacks-what-we-know/ (Medium)

[iii] http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/1 (High)

[iv] http://www.bundespolizei.de/Web/DE/05Die-Bundespolizei/04Einsatzkraefte/03_GSG9/GSG9_node.html (High)

[v] http://www.bundespolizei.de/Web/DE/05Die-Bundespolizei/04Einsatzkraefte/03_GSG9/GSG9_node.html (High)

[vi] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37044519 (High)

[vii] http://www.politico.eu/article/german-intelligence-warns-of-is-hit-squads-among-refugees/ (Medium)

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